Brian BARNARD Forthcoming

Rating Migration and Bond Valuation: Decomposing Rating Migration Matrices from Market Data via Default Probability Term Structures

The study builds on previous research that decomposes rating category default probability term structures from rating category interest rate term structures, and proposes a method to decompose rating migration matrices from market data, via decomposed default probability term structures. To investigate the power and accuracy of the proposed method, it was examined to what extent an existing, known rating migration matrix could again be surfaced by the method. Overall, the results are more than satisfactory, and the method promises to be accurate. Although not considered here, the main objective is the application of the method to market data. The outcome should be insightful in itself, and can be used to evaluate historical rating migration matrices commonly devised by rating agencies, and to form a better understanding of the default probability term structures embedded in market data.
JEL Classification