Financial Management. Green Bonds – Success or Failure?

This text will explain which role “Green Bonds” play in financing projects and how the green factor is weighted. It will be discussed on how the term “green” can change the price of the bond, if there is a “green premium” and for which group of investors this type of bond is interesting. We will discuss ways to reduce their cost of capital, also considering the risks and on ways on how to improve their conditions. The sustainable and eco-friendly aspects are also highlighted in this text and they might become crucial in future investing, which gives the bond an interesting role.

Read More
Patrick BIMPONG Ishmael ARHIN Thomas hezkeal Khela NAN Edward DANSO Pious OPOKU Arthur BENEDICT Grace TETTEY

Assessing Predictive Power and Earnings Manipulations. Applied Study on Listed Consumer Goods and Service Companies in Ghana Using 3 Z-Score Models

This study uses data from Ghana’s public listed consumer goods and service companies for the period of 2014-2018 to test the predictive power of Altman’s (2000), Taffler’s (1983), and Beneish’s (1999) models in detecting bankruptcy and Earnings Manipulation. Prediction power (accuracy) was tested for two Z-Score models: Altman’s (2000) revised model and Taffler’s (1983) model. All two models were found to have significant predictive power. Altman’s revised model was found to be accurate for listed consumer firms in Ghana at a predictive power rate of 66%. Taffler’s (1983) Z-Score model was equally found to be accurate for prediction at a higher predictive power of 88%. The Taffler (1983) model has a higher predictive power compared with Altman’s (2000) revised model. The Beneish (1999) model also revealed that the financial statements of the industry were manipulated at a different degree. The study recommends that stakeholders would be better protected when the three models are...

Read More
Kakiya Grace GIRANGWA Jared MOSE Lucy RONO

Enterprise Risk Management Practices and Organizational Performance. Does Intellectual Capital Make a Difference?

Enterprise risks pose threats to the capability of an organization to accomplish business processes and create value. This research sought to add to studies done in the area of enterprise risk management (ERM) by focusing on the moderating effect of intellectual capital on the relationship between ERM governance practices and organizational performance of state corporations in Kenya. This study was guided by resource based theory. The study used explanatory cross sectional survey design. Primary data on ERM practices, intellectual capital and organizational performance was collected from structured questionnaires. A survey was carried out on 218 state corporations in Kenya. Data collected was analyzed by use of descriptive and inferential statistics. The research hypotheses were tested using multiple regression analysis. ERM governance practices were also found to significantly (β=0.412, p

Read More

Venture Capital Process: Opportunity Selection, Monitoring, Capital Rationing, and Deal Flow

The study investigates specific characteristics of the venture capital market: opportunity selection, monitoring, capital rationing, as well as deal flows and channels, in greater depth. It covers a developing market (South Africa) and uses qualitative methodology. Quality of opportunities is generally low, impacting industry efficiency through increased opportunity costs. Markedly about the assessment of applications, is the degree of structure to the process, and intuition involved. At the post investment stage, portfolio companies are managed in a variety of ways, including providing strategic and operational structures and insight, as well as shared services to enhance business functions. In certain cases, capital rationing prevails in the VC market. Deal referral is an important source of opportunities, underscoring the importance of a network and strong reputation. Overall, the VC market is still in its infancy, with a lack of awareness of both its existence as well as its...

Read More

An Investigation into Savings Behaviour of Households in Midrand, Johannesburg

Saving is a crucial component for the economic health of a country and can act as a shield for international capital movements. Low savings behaviour of households in South Africa and in particular that of Midrand, is of great concern. High levels of unemployment, financial illiteracy and debt, contribute negatively to the level of savings. This research study investigates the savings behaviour of households in the Midrand using quantitative methods from data collected from 191 households which participated in the study. The results revealed that many households in Midrand are not financially literate and have a poor savings culture. The inability to budget and lack of financial planning are some of the factors that hinder households from saving. The study shows that households in Midrand are aware of the importance of saving, despite not saving enough. These households earn higher than the average household in South Africa and are more educated. Poor saving behaviour is a result of...

Read More
Mary Nelima SINDANI

The Moderating Effect of Financial Literacy on the Relationship between Accounts Receivable Management Practices and Growth of SMEs in Kenya

The main objective of this study was to assess the moderating effect of financial literacy on the relationship between Accounts receivable management practices and growth of SME in Kakamega County,Kenya. This study adopted a mixed survey research design. The target population was 5401 registered SMEs under Single Business Permit Registration. Proportionate stratified random sampling technique was used to select 359 SMEs. Primary data was collected using semi-structured questionnaire. The data was analyzed using the Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS). Analysis of the data collected focused on both the descriptive statistics (trends) and inferential statistics (Pearson Correlation Coefficients and multiple regression coefficients. The analyzed data was presented in frequency tables and graphs. Regression analysis was used to establish the relationship between the independent and dependent variables. The study findings revealed that the SME owners were informed about various...

Read More

Rating Migration and Bond Valuation: Ahistorical Interest Rate and Default Probability Term Structures

The study extends the theoretical framework proposed to decompose rating migration matrices from bond market price data. Method to decompose default probability term structures for and from interest rate term structures for different rating categories, is delineated and empirically evaluated. Emphasis is squarely on using ahistorical (non-historical) market data, and utilizing actual market perceptions regarding default probabilities. The method naturally allows a mapping and transitioning between interest rate term structures and default probability term structures. Mapping to and fro interest rate term structures and default probability term structures introduces an additional level of triangulation and evaluation. The study examines the corresponding interest rate term structures of the default probability term structures of a typical rating migration matrix, and the corresponding default probability term structures of a typical market interest rate term structure set. It is found...

Read More

Determining the Exchange Rate: Purchasing Power Parity – PPP

This study aimed to examine the effect of inflation on the issue of exchange rate determination of the forward exchange rate on the exchange rate of RMB (Renminbi) to Rupiah. Inflation has been chosen as an independent variable because of its close relation to PPP (purchasing power parity) theory. Analyses in this research have used logistic analysis with time series data. The data that has been used include exchange rate data with the period 2007-2017 with a sample size of 132 data. The results of this study have shown that inflation is effective in determining the exchange rate.

Read More

Effects of Accounts Receivable Financing Practices on Growth of SMEs in Kakamega County, Kenya

Accounts receivable financing practice is the act of exchanging Accounts Receivables with money, and is defined as any type of financing which distinctly relies on AR, either as collateral or as eligibility requirement. Financing firm operations through Accounts receivables is gaining prominence world over which enables firms access finances easily. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effect of Accounts receivable financing practice on growth of SMEs in Kenya. Descriptive survey design and purposive random sampling were used. A sample size of 359 out of 5401 was used. Secondary data was obtained from Kakamega County Revenue Department, for the period under study. The assumptions which form a basis for use of the regression model were tested using homoscedasticity and autocorrelation. Ordinary Least Square method was used to determine the cause effect relationship between variables while hypothesis was tested at 5% significance level. The overall model was found to be...

Read More
Nicolae BALTES Maria-Daciana RODEAN

Efficiency of Operational Activity of Commercial Banks in Romania

In recent years, the financial performance of Romanian commercial banks has been considerably reduced, due to the decline in lending activity and the increase in operating expenses. The paper aims to estimate the impact of credit, liquidity and solvency risk on the efficiency of the operational activity of commercial banks listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange. The results obtained by the application of the multiple linear regression showed that the level of the „cost to income” indicator, during 2010-2015, was significantly influenced by the capitalization level, the lending rate and the saving rate.

Read More

Feasibility and Sustainability of Community Based Health Insurance in Rural Areas Case Study of Musana, Zimbabwe

The Zimbabwe Demographic Health Survey (ZDHS 2010-11) showed that only 6 percent of the population is covered by health insurance in Zimbabwe. This study investigated the feasibility, acceptability and sustainability of Community Based Health Insurance (CBHI) as an alternative to pooling risk and financing social protection in Zimbabwe. Willingness to Pay (WTP) for health insurance and socioeconomic data were collected through interviews with 121 household heads selected using a 2-stage sampling procedure on 14 villages in Musana and Domboshava rural areas, a population which is largely unemployed and reliant on subsistence agriculture. A CBHI scheme was established and followed up for 3 years documenting data on visits made, financial contributions from recruited households and their actual health expenditures. Findings indicate that CBHI is generally accepted as a means of health insurance in rural communities. The median willingness to pay for health insurance was $5.43 against...

Read More

Rating Migration and Bond Valuation: Decomposing Rating Migration Matrices from Market Data via Default Probability Term Structures

The study builds on previous research that decomposes rating category default probability term structures from rating category interest rate term structures, and proposes a method to decompose rating migration matrices from market data, via decomposed default probability term structures. To investigate the power and accuracy of the proposed method, it was examined to what extent an existing, known rating migration matrix could again be surfaced by the method. Overall, the results are more than satisfactory, and the method promises to be accurate. Although not considered here, the main objective is the application of the method to market data. The outcome should be insightful in itself, and can be used to evaluate historical rating migration matrices commonly devised by rating agencies, and to form a better understanding of the default probability term structures embedded in market data.

Read More
Akpan J. WILLIAMS Anthonia U. UBOM Uduak B. UBOM

Microinsurance, Micro investments and Sustainable Development in Nigeria

This article attempted to examine the relevance of microinsurance, in promoting micro investments and sustainable development in Nigeria. Specifically, this work sought to assess the nature, characteristics and operations of microinsurance and to establish the link between these elements and the growth of micro investments as well as the variables of sustainable development, such as poverty level in the country. The experimental, pilot and replicative research designs were used. Secondary data sourced from the publications of the National Insurance Commission of Nigeria, reports from Delta State Ministry of Poverty Alleviation, journals, text books and periodicals, among others were analysed qualitatively and descriptively. It was discovered that microinsurance has high potency in promoting micro investments or micro projects in the country based on the experience in Delta State where a lot of micro entrepreneurs, mainly the beneficiaries of the state microcredit scheme and Youth...

Read More
Anthonia U. UBOM Joseph Michael ESSIEN Uduak B. UBOM

Economic Implication of Foreign Reserves Management on the Performance of the Nigerian Economy, 1995 to 2013

The focus of this study has been on the economic implications of foreign reserves management on the performance of the Nigerian economy. Despite declaration of huge external reserves, the reserves had depleted drastically and economic indicators have not significantly improved, as they have always been highly fluctuating with marginal growth levels. This study aimed to establish relationships among economic performance indicators (capacity utilization rate, manufacturing output, growth rate of gross domestic product) and foreign reserves management variables (foreign reserves position, exchange rate, imports, exports). Relevant studies have been reviewed and the methodology implied desk and empirical research. The ordinary least square multiple regression model was used to analyze the data and it helped discover inverse relationships that exist among exchange rate, imports, exports and capacity utilization rate in Nigeria. The analysis found that exchange rate exerts significant...

Read More

Success and Failures of Acquisitions: A Case Study for a Chemical Company

The purpose of this study was to perform a universal inspection of the processes adopted in acquisitions by concentrating on attributes which are speedily implemented in the industry. The approach to this research study was based on literature reviews to gain knowledge on the causes of failure and the factors attributed to the success of acquisitions in the case study concerning a chemical company. This method was applied to identify if the failures and successes researched are shown in the case study. The research study firstly looked at various approaches to acquisitions, namely, the pre-acquisition, post-acquisition and integration phases together with the motives for acquisitions. The study delves further into factors influencing the failures and successes of acquisitions. A notable body of research was consulted to focus on these factors. The research study highlights a framework incorporating the management of post-integration strategy concurrently with the people and the...

Read More

Investigating the Impact of Dollarization on Economic Growth: A Case of Zimbabwe

This study examined the effects of dollarization on business in Zimbabwe focusing on economic indicators such as inflation rate, GDP, employment and ease of doing business during the period 2009-2015. Zimbabwe experienced a very difficult economic phase characterised by hyperinflation, negative economic growth, unavailability of basic commodities and negative economic growth rates during the period 1998-2008. In 2009 the country adopted a multi-currency system whereby the Zimbabwean dollar was in circulation alongside various other currencies, with the United States Dollar and the South African Rand being the dominant ones. There has been general speculation that Zimbabwe’s economic problems are due to dollarization. Through analysing data from interviews and secondary sources, the research established that dollarization brought about stability in the economy, arrested inflation, and caused a marginal increase in GDP. However, the response of the employment rate was independent of the...

Read More
Emmanuel I. MICHAEL Ikechukwu A. ACHA Joseph Michael ESSIEN

Nigeria’s Investment Environment: Issues of Economic Growth and Development

In this study, the researchers examine the Nigerian investment environment and assess its contributions or otherwise to the economic growth and development of the country. The study adopted ex post facto and secondary data research designs, using time series data obtained from various editions of CBN Statistical Bulletins. Some environment-specific factors such as the growth rate of RGDP (as dependent variable) and Exchange Rate (ER), Inflation Rate (IFR), Prime Lending Rate (PLR), and Total Government Expenditure (TGE), as independent variables. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was carried out to test for stationarity of the variables Johansen’s cointegration test was also conducted to ascertain the nature of relationship among the variables and on the whole, Ordinary Least Square regression technique was adopted in the analysis of the variables and model used in the study. The ADF results obtained showed that RGDPgr and PLR were stationary at level while ER, IFR, and TGE were...

Read More

Testing the Pecking Order Theory of Capital Structure in FTSE 350 Food Producers Firms in United Kingdom between 2001 and 2005

This paper tests the Pecking Order Theory to see if it best explains the financing behaviour of FTSE 350 UK Food producer firms from the time period of 2001 to 2005. A multiple case study design was used. However, the study approach was retrospective in nature. The Pecking order model as proposed by Shyam-Sunder and Myers, Frank and Goyal; and Rajan and Zingales, was followed in this research. The empirical analysis of firm-year data was compared to a generalised view of the literature to enable an assessment of the commonalities and differences observed. The results suggest that although there is some form of Pecking order behaviour amongst FTSE 350 UK food producer firms, especially when it comes to managers’ preference for the different sources of finance, their financing behaviour is best explained by the trade-off theory of capital structure.

Read More

Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction: Evidence from Ghana

The frequent cases of corporate failures within the financial sector necessitates the need to employ models to predict forehand the financial distressed or bankruptcy state of the financial sector. This study aims at predicting financial distress and bankruptcy on selected listed banks on the stock exchange of a developing West African country, Ghana. Data used for the study spanned from 2008 to 2014. The Altman Z-Score and Boone Indicator were the main means of analysis. The study concluded that poor corporate governance contributes to financial distress and that smaller board size negatively affects corporate performance. The study also concludes that, in a high competitive industry, firms become more efficient and their performance enhanced and thus less likely to be financially distressed. Merging the listed banks indicates financial stability of listed banks albeit one distressed bank. Adoption of best corporate governance standards, enhancing competition through effective...

Read More
Emmanuel I. MICHAEL Joseph Michael ESSIEN Uduak B. UBOM

Bank Portfolio Structure and Economic Absorption Theory of Economic Development: A Theoretical Proposition

The focus of this article was on theoretical proposition of Bank Portfolio Structure and Economic Absorption Theory of economic development. Specifically, the work sought to establish the basis of bank portfolio rigidity and to identify the causes of economic absorption problems and their implications on economic development. The theoretical and conceptual research designs were used. Existing literatures were reviewed using archival retrieval approach, library search and internet exploration. The information obtained was judgmentally, logically and qualitatively analyzed. It was discovered among others, that, bank portfolio rigidity stems from regulatory policy defects using inconsistent monetary policy tools such as high liquidity ratio and cash ratio, etc. and compelling the banks to adhere to the regulatory requirement, as well as lack of adequate and quality stock of infrastructure and technology as the basic causes of economic absorption problems. Above all, low level of economic...

Read More
Gregory S. NAMUSONGE Mary Nelima LYANI (SINDANI) Maurice SAKWA

Accounts Receivable Risk Management Practices and Growth of SMEs in Kakamega County, Kenya

Accounts receivable risk management is a structured approach to managing uncertainties through risk assessment, developing strategies to manage it, and mitigation of risk using managerial resources (Gakure et al., 2012) Although there has been a considerable interest by government to promote SMEs by encouraging owners to take up government tenders, in Kenya the number of SMEs capable of sustaining themselves is still low. Studies show credit risk as an important variable affecting firms. Nonetheless, these risks’ influence on SMEs has not received as much attention as it should. This study’s main objective was to examine the influence of credit risk assessment practices on growth of SMEs. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effect of credit risk assessment practices on growth of SMEs in Kakamega County, in Kenya. Causal research design was applied to show the influence of credit risk assessment practice on growth. Using the sampling technique of purposive stratified random...

Read More

Five Year Retrospective Study of the Financial Situation of Northern Foods Plc., United Kingdom

This study was conducted as a retrospective analysis of Northern Foods Plc., once a major player in FTSE 350 Food Sector, to evaluate its financial situation over a five year period. The ex post factor research design was used for this study. Annual reports and databases on Northern Foods Plc., and Associated British Foods Plc., were used to perform a series of ratio analyses. The results revealed that Northern Foods Plc.’s performance has been declining as evidenced in the profitability ratios calculated. Also, financial strength was weak and working capital has not been effectively managed, hence affecting its cash and profit generation potentials. The company was limited in its ability to grow and expand as it needed to regularly fund its pension deficit, and finance its high levels of debt. The study concludes that Northern Foods was not in a very strong financial position, yet it was not making the required investments to improve, hence its takeover though this paper will not...

Read More

Effects of Human Resource Cost on Profitability of Banks in Nigeria

This study aims at investigating the effects of human resources cost on the profitability of banks in Nigeria from 2010 – 2014 using First Bank Nigeria, Plc and Zenith bank Nig. Plc. The study adopted content method of anlaysis and linear regression model to test the stated hypotheses. Findings revealed that staff cost significantly affect Earnings per share, Net profit margin, and Return on capital employed of banks. The researcher recommended among other things that there should be a uniformed standard for identification and measurement of human capital assets.

Read More

Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility on Financial Performance: Evidence from Listed Banks in Nigeria

The major purpose of the study is to examine the Impact of CSR on Earning Per Share (EPS), Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) and Dividend Per Share (DPS) of listed banks in Nigeria. It is believed by the researchers that this study will be of immense use to the government, financial institutions and the general public. The study covered the period 2010-2014. The Impact of EPS, ROCE and DPS was tested on CSR. Simple regression analysis was employed by the researchers in testing the data collected from the annual published financial statement of the selected banks. The regression result showed that EPS and DPS have negative significant relationship with CSR while ROCE has a positive significant relationship with CSR. The research recommends that the government should by way of legislation through regulatory authorities, compel financial institutions to embark actively in CSR, also CSR should be seen as an investment and reported as such in the financial statements of financial...

Read More
Francesco COREA

What Finance Can Learn from Biopharma Industry: A Transfer of Innovation Models

The financial sector is living a profound crisis in order to keep pace with the continuous technological breakthroughs that come out daily, while other sectors seem to be historically more growth-by-innovation-based (e.g., the pharma/biotech sector). This work focuses on an interdisciplinary approach to innovation, and on insights that the banking sector can draw from the pharmaceutical one. Hence, a unique dataset has been built, and it collects information on the most relevant players for both the fields. Different indicators have been created as well in order to empirically test whether the financial industry is actually less innovative with respect to the pharmaceutical one, and to understand the best growing strategy for the banking industry. The results confirm that there is an innovation gap between the two industries, as well as identify the corporate venture capital as the best mean to drive business growth through innovation.

Read More
Javier ZARCO Shelly DALY

The Global Economic Crisis: Spain’s Housing Bubble

Housing bubbles have been discussed and closely linked to current world economics since 2008. This paper takes a case study approach to the situation in Spain in terms of its economy, the housing market and the ongoing economic crisis. Unique aspects of the Spanish culture and historical idiosyncrasies are included for the reader to compare and contrast various international settings and economic machinations. Micro and macro factors are incorporated in order to allow the reader to evaluate the complexity of the ongoing crisis, options and potential alternatives. The unique burden the Spanish housing bubble places on young adults, those most dramatically affected by Spanish unemployment levels, is also broached.

Read More
Ayub MOHAMMAD Muhammad Mehtab AZEEM

Money and Physical Capital Relationship: McKinnon’s Complementarity Hypothesis on Turkey’s Economy

A complementary relationship between money and physical capital, emphasis on liberalization, financial liberalization theory and increased real interest rates will lead to a surge in money demand and investment. In this research paper, the validity of this hypothesis, which is also known as McKinnon’s complementarity hypothesis, in terms of financial liberalization policy has been tested empirically to examine the performance, money demand, interest rate and investment size in order to attempt to designate the respective relationship in Turkey. In this study, over the period of 1999Q1-2014Q4 in Turkey, the relationship between money and physical capital for available data is investigated through the BOUND and ARDL test methods. Empirical analysis of the findings suggests that Turkey’s economy is based on a limited complementary relationship between money and physical capital.

Read More
Engin ONER

Problems and Recommendations over Tax Policies

Tax policy is a tool that state uses on economic, social and financial fields. Funding public expenditure is its financial goal, providing economic stability and development is its economic goal and contributing to fair distribution of income and wealth is its social goal. In result of high debt load, rupture between taxes and economic goals, being not established a document and registration order and lacking in management of administration and control functions, significantly increasing tax loss and evasion and factors such as unfair competition that it leads to show that our tax system is ineffective and have a negative influence in economic life. In order to succeed in tax policies, “taxes should be minimalistic, should consider the ability to pay with respect to income level, should prevent the luxurious consumption and waste, should decrease tax evasion and loss, should tax informal economy, should encourage export, employment and development, should be reformed in a permanent...

Read More

Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crisis in Asian Countries

This paper aims to test the relevance of the advanced warning indicators in the prediction of systemic banking crises in 6 Asian emerging countries over the period 1973-2012. Based on multivariate panel logit model, our empirical results suggest that among 6 determinants of banking crises ranged into macroeconomic, financial and external variables, inflation demonstrates the most significant predictive power on systemic banking crises.

Read More

Investment Modelling at the Euro Area Level

The aim of this research is to model the investment function at the level of the Euro zone. To achieve this main objective, we use and implement the structural equation modeling procedure for empirical analysis. Using this technique, the causal relationships established between investment and influencing factors are estimated and tested. Also, in the process of modeling structural equations, we examine empirical data sets related to the Euro area’s Member States.

Read More

Islamic Deposits and Investment Accounts in Income Smoothing in Post-Reclassification of the Islamic Financial Service Act 2013

This study attempts to determine the impact of the reclassification on income smoothing practices by Islamic banks in Malaysia through loss provisions. It is well acknowledged that Islamic banks set up an allowance for loss provisions in order to absorb any future losses. However, alternative mechanisms, such as Profit Equalization Reserve (PER) and Investment Risk Reserve (IRR) instead of loss provisions, are used to smooth income. This study determines whether the exercise by Islamic banks in Malaysia to reclassify Islamic deposits to investment accounts after the enacted Islamic Financial Service Act (2013), may have caused unintended consequences in less profit payout to investment account holders. The results do not indicate any unintended consequences of less profit payout to investment account holders from the present exercise by the Islamic banks in Malaysia to distinguish Islamic deposits from investment accounts.

Read More
Eugine IHEANACHO Godwin Chigozie OKPARA

Banking Sector Performance and Corporate Governance in Nigeria: A Discriminant Analytical Approach

This paper sets out to investigate the impact of corporate governance on the banking sector performance. Precisely, it examined firstly, how each variant in the corporate governance structure discriminates against the performance of the banking sector and secondly whether the executive directors and non executive directors are associated negatively and significantly with non performing loans. To accomplish these objectives, the researchers employed discriminant analysis, correlation coefficient and the spearman rank correlation as an alternate method. The results of the analysis revealed that foreign ownership contributed about 187.77 percent of the total discriminant score for the function thereby propelling foreign ownership as the most discriminant ownership variable in banks performance and also implying that a bank s chance of belonging to the group of highly performing banks increases as its foreign ownership increases. The poor performance of the board ownership is not as...

Read More
Alexandra HOROBET Lucian BELASCU Roxana Georgiana OLARU

Integration of Capital Markets from Central and Eastern Europe: Implications for EU Investors

Our paper investigates the extent of capital market co-movements between three emerging markets Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland and three developed markets from the European Union – Austria, France and Germany. We test whether an increase in correlations between the six markets took place in recent years, as revealing higher integration of capital markets in the region. We find a statistically significant positive trend in cross-market correlations between 1999 and 2008, before the emergence of the global financial crisis. Movements in national stock markets are not fully synchronized, but increases in market volatilities lead to increases in cross-country correlations. There is a long-term relationship between some of these countries capital markets, and information is transmitted from one market to the other. Our findings confirm previous studies and lead to the conclusion that stock markets from Central and Eastern Europe became more integrated with the developed markets in...

Read More

Foreign Direct Investment Drivers in Romania

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) represents a condition sine qua non for a sustainable development of Romania, taking into consideration the fact that the domestic capital is not enough to assure a positive and significant growth. The present study uses the multiple linear regression to determine the main factors which influence FDI level in Romania. The international reserve and the capital market index BET have a direct and positive impact on the foreign investment flow, while the short, medium and long private and public external debt proved to influence direct, but in a negative way, the FDI.

Read More

The National Income Between Monetary and Fiscal Actions

Andersen and Jordan (1968) and Andersen (1971) argued that fiscal actions have a negligible effect on nominal income and can not sustain a stable and balanced economic growth. Also, they argued, along with other researchers who have embraced monetarism ideas from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, that the budget deficit presents negativeeffects in the economy that limit private investment. In this article, we analyzed the empirical relationship that is established between the tax actions and the long and short term national income in the U.S. economy and the economies of Eurozone.

Read More

From Liquidity Crisis to Sovereign Debt Crisis

This paper summarizes the results of empirical research on European Union s evolution in terms of macroeconomic stability in a period in which member countries crossed from a liquidity crisis to a sovereign debt crisis. So, the evolution of the EU member countries is analyzed as the sovereign debt crisis has worsened and has become increasingly dangerous for the stability of the European economy. The research that is the subject of this paper aims to segment the EU member countries according to the degree of macroeconomic stability. Also, this segmentation process is performed according to two indicators that are highly important for macroeconomic stability, namely the sovereign debt, expressed as public debt to GDP, and fiscal and budgetary discipline, expressed by the ratio of budget balance to GDP.

Read More
Claudiu Ilie OPREANA

Estimation of Value-at-Risk on Romanian Stock Exchange Using Volatility Forecasting Models

This paper aims to analyse the market risk (estimated by Value-at-Risk) on the Romanian capital market using modern econometric tools to estimate volatility, such as EWMA, GARCH models. In this respect, I want to identify the most appropriate volatility forecasting model to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a portofolio of representative indices (BET, BET-FI and RASDAQ-C). VaR depends on the volatility, time horizon and confidence interval for the continuous returns under analysis. Volatility tends to happen in clusters. The assumption that volatility remains constant at all times can be fatal. It is determined that the most recent data have asserted more influence on future volatility than past data. To emphasize this fact, recently, EWMA and GARCH models have become critical tools in financial applications. The outcome of this study is that GARCH provides more accurate analysis than EWMA.This approach is useful for traders and risk managers to be able to forecast the future...

Read More